* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 32 30 27 22 21 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 32 30 27 22 21 20 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 8 7 3 8 12 12 16 17 20 22 28 SHEAR DIR 55 52 75 96 125 220 251 243 239 226 234 237 247 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 121 118 115 112 110 110 110 112 115 118 122 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 56 54 54 49 48 46 43 42 41 36 35 31 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 51 45 37 33 15 -4 -11 -29 -16 -24 -13 -29 -26 200 MB DIV 60 28 39 39 21 2 0 -24 -38 -17 -15 -4 -12 LAND (KM) 1639 1534 1429 1340 1251 1055 878 703 558 427 280 118 -34 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 141.0 141.8 142.5 143.2 143.8 145.4 146.9 148.4 149.7 150.9 152.3 153.8 155.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY