* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 64 58 53 45 39 37 37 36 34 35 34 V (KT) LAND 80 72 64 58 53 45 39 37 37 36 34 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 80 72 65 59 54 46 41 37 35 34 34 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 11 10 8 6 2 4 2 2 0 5 9 8 7 SHEAR DIR 69 81 109 154 123 158 201 266 160 117 156 144 129 SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 112 108 105 103 101 100 100 105 110 111 110 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 68 64 67 65 63 61 58 56 56 55 58 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 20 27 21 28 42 43 59 60 75 66 58 200 MB DIV 43 15 4 7 26 18 2 -13 -14 -21 12 8 -1 LAND (KM) 1605 1637 1672 1720 1770 1870 1977 2128 2243 2135 2059 1900 1696 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.5 17.0 16.7 16.8 16.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 126.2 126.9 127.5 128.2 128.9 130.1 131.2 132.5 133.7 134.8 135.5 137.1 139.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -28. -32. -36. -37. -39. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -25. -32. -37. -40. -40. -42. -44. -43. -44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -16. -22. -27. -35. -41. -43. -43. -44. -46. -45. -46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY