* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/10/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 50 54 57 57 59 59 56 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 43 50 54 57 57 59 59 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 30 30 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 9 4 8 7 8 8 10 14 12 14 11 15 17 SHEAR DIR 62 115 138 145 181 143 120 125 125 115 122 122 114 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 139 140 143 142 138 135 130 127 122 120 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 61 57 58 57 58 56 56 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -25 -20 -14 -10 0 9 14 35 41 69 54 38 200 MB DIV 33 27 26 30 18 30 65 69 89 71 91 83 58 LAND (KM) 768 808 850 888 908 979 1088 1217 1329 1482 1660 1808 1950 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.5 113.2 114.9 116.8 118.8 120.7 122.9 125.1 127.2 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 32. 36. 36. 38. 37. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 37. 39. 39. 36. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/10/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/10/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY