* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 55 62 69 74 78 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 47 55 62 69 74 78 80 82 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 49 57 66 77 87 94 SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 7 6 7 9 14 6 10 1 4 9 4 SHEAR DIR 80 98 82 68 61 82 101 125 100 270 128 273 312 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 136 136 136 138 137 138 140 142 147 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 133 133 133 132 135 135 137 138 140 144 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 57 64 59 58 61 59 57 54 51 55 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 88 80 65 55 49 38 29 30 28 10 12 5 0 200 MB DIV -6 -1 5 4 29 48 41 42 29 9 10 3 0 LAND (KM) 1049 1018 991 976 961 933 929 901 760 683 421 106 69 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.5 15.8 16.6 17.5 18.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.4 46.2 47.0 47.7 49.3 51.2 53.6 56.2 58.9 61.8 64.7 67.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 8 8 9 11 13 14 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 36 38 33 39 43 44 45 50 59 53 49 54 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 349 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 29. 37. 45. 52. 56. 58. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 30. 37. 44. 49. 53. 55. 57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY