* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 22 18 DIS 15 15 16 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 13 8 4 11 11 16 14 16 19 24 26 SHEAR DIR 61 80 100 141 207 217 233 229 228 223 225 239 252 SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 121 118 114 112 110 108 107 109 111 114 116 120 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 46 46 42 40 40 39 36 37 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 22 17 0 -6 -12 -24 -17 -17 -19 -21 -21 -13 200 MB DIV 26 33 33 10 4 -12 -21 -42 -30 -19 9 -13 -14 LAND (KM) 1575 1488 1402 1319 1237 1077 936 809 680 545 381 194 24 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 141.4 142.0 142.5 143.1 143.7 145.0 146.2 147.3 148.5 149.8 151.4 153.1 154.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -10. -10. -12. -11. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -7. -12. -10. -10. -9. -8. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY