* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/10/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 60 55 49 40 37 33 31 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 60 55 49 40 37 33 31 32 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 64 59 55 47 41 37 35 33 32 31 30 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 5 3 4 5 7 6 6 3 6 12 13 SHEAR DIR 73 116 168 240 207 213 276 240 259 192 153 151 172 SST (C) 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.9 24.2 24.6 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 108 105 101 100 98 100 103 107 109 111 111 111 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 63 60 61 55 52 50 54 50 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 9 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 22 16 13 31 25 39 38 43 45 46 37 200 MB DIV 18 12 14 31 20 3 -26 -42 -39 -29 -9 -20 -8 LAND (KM) 1649 1692 1738 1793 1848 1970 2117 2236 2137 2009 1863 1682 1490 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.2 17.8 17.4 17.1 16.7 16.3 16.1 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.9 128.6 129.3 130.0 131.2 132.6 133.7 134.7 136.0 137.5 139.3 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -26. -30. -33. -34. -35. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -19. -26. -34. -37. -41. -42. -42. -43. -44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -15. -19. -26. -35. -38. -42. -44. -43. -44. -45. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/10/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY