* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * KIKA CP012008 08/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 49 52 56 59 64 67 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 45 49 52 56 59 64 67 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 29 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 2 4 5 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 355 303 255 243 253 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 133 134 134 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 54 54 54 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 11 8 2 3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -20 -7 -7 4 1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1340 1433 1496 1556 1628 1800 1993 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.4 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.2 165.6 167.0 168.4 169.8 172.6 175.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 32. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. 34. 37. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008 KIKA 08/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008 KIKA 08/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY