* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 27 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 12 11 13 11 17 14 19 15 17 19 25 30 SHEAR DIR 101 124 175 223 219 241 229 239 226 222 219 225 234 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.4 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 118 114 111 109 108 106 105 106 108 111 114 118 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 49 45 42 42 36 37 37 35 32 30 28 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 21 8 2 -1 -20 -8 -14 -3 -14 -15 -25 200 MB DIV 29 23 28 15 8 -9 -22 -35 0 0 -7 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1485 1416 1348 1270 1193 1051 934 835 716 577 419 239 111 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 141.7 142.2 142.6 143.2 143.8 145.0 146.0 146.9 148.0 149.3 150.8 152.6 154.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -14. -18. -19. -18. -19. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -14. -18. -18. -17. -17. -17. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY