* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 65 61 53 48 42 37 35 33 32 33 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 65 61 53 48 42 37 35 33 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 66 61 56 48 43 39 37 36 34 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 6 4 3 3 2 3 4 3 8 13 10 SHEAR DIR 115 158 216 223 195 248 241 250 314 103 147 170 179 SST (C) 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.5 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 99 99 99 101 106 109 110 109 109 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 62 63 63 59 53 50 50 51 50 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 12 11 12 12 10 26 26 35 34 43 36 200 MB DIV 11 7 24 12 4 -12 -25 -49 -53 -39 4 -15 -35 LAND (KM) 1697 1751 1806 1876 1946 2081 2233 2105 1986 1837 1656 1487 1325 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.8 129.5 130.3 131.0 132.4 133.7 135.0 136.2 137.7 139.5 141.2 142.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -14. -21. -26. -30. -32. -34. -35. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -26. -31. -36. -40. -41. -43. -44. -43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -27. -33. -38. -40. -42. -43. -42. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY