* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 55 61 63 65 68 66 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 47 55 61 63 65 68 66 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 40 43 44 45 45 44 42 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 13 10 12 10 15 12 16 16 15 18 25 SHEAR DIR 115 108 125 123 123 132 118 113 101 104 113 102 101 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 146 148 148 146 143 139 135 133 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.8 -53.0 -53.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 61 62 60 61 62 62 64 62 64 62 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 8 9 11 11 11 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -25 -13 -2 0 10 10 39 48 70 72 80 44 200 MB DIV 19 22 9 9 16 76 77 90 90 115 114 58 57 LAND (KM) 968 1010 1020 1048 1081 1175 1302 1421 1550 1699 1862 2017 2159 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.8 113.4 114.1 114.8 116.5 118.4 120.2 122.3 124.5 126.6 128.6 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 23. 31. 39. 40. 41. 42. 41. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 30. 36. 38. 40. 43. 41. 39. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY