* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/11/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 50 57 59 60 60 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 42 50 57 59 60 60 61 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 30 33 35 37 37 38 SHEAR (KTS) 19 14 15 12 12 14 13 12 15 12 17 9 12 SHEAR DIR 62 63 74 93 62 44 52 65 76 105 101 124 129 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 155 151 146 143 138 133 129 129 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 9 11 10 11 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 75 76 67 69 75 71 75 70 78 69 71 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 33 27 27 16 24 21 26 27 20 26 30 200 MB DIV 32 38 29 43 54 43 31 24 40 34 59 32 57 LAND (KM) 333 314 305 308 310 336 368 406 477 546 606 670 722 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 97.7 98.5 99.2 100.0 100.7 102.2 103.7 105.0 106.5 107.9 109.1 109.9 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 19. 27. 35. 38. 40. 38. 39. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 30. 37. 39. 40. 40. 41. 44. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/11/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/11/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY