* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 61 67 73 78 81 82 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 53 61 67 73 78 81 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 47 54 63 73 82 86 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 7 6 6 13 5 11 7 7 6 7 4 SHEAR DIR 77 73 79 106 88 104 96 69 55 65 344 25 290 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 140 140 139 138 137 139 142 147 149 147 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 137 136 135 135 134 135 140 146 149 146 140 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 57 61 59 59 54 51 50 50 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 85 73 52 45 42 32 31 23 19 14 14 16 17 200 MB DIV -3 5 21 49 57 60 47 17 -1 1 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 920 897 883 876 871 894 858 728 643 479 155 68 -10 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.5 14.4 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 47.9 48.7 49.5 50.2 52.0 54.0 56.2 58.6 61.5 64.7 68.1 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 34 42 47 44 48 51 51 60 49 27 68 70 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 29. 36. 43. 49. 54. 57. 60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 28. 36. 42. 48. 53. 56. 57. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY