* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 15 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 5 10 13 12 11 14 16 15 19 23 27 SHEAR DIR 110 149 221 232 247 253 233 231 222 235 236 238 241 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 116 113 112 111 109 108 109 111 114 117 120 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 51 45 44 46 43 38 40 36 37 35 34 32 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 6 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 24 7 -2 -6 -9 -22 -13 -26 -23 -27 -33 -18 -25 200 MB DIV 30 24 3 -3 -19 -23 -28 -25 -23 -8 -14 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 1431 1338 1245 1154 1064 898 760 642 518 375 210 48 113 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.3 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 143.0 143.7 144.5 145.2 146.6 147.8 148.9 150.1 151.5 153.1 155.1 157.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 7 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -5. -12. -15. -13. -12. -10. -8. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY