* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/11/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 68 63 58 48 40 36 32 29 27 26 28 V (KT) LAND 75 72 68 63 58 48 40 36 32 29 27 26 28 V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 68 63 58 50 44 40 37 36 34 33 31 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 6 8 6 5 8 4 4 8 14 13 10 SHEAR DIR 134 182 212 200 214 223 201 234 154 148 149 168 184 SST (C) 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 24.1 24.6 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.9 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 98 98 98 102 108 111 112 111 111 113 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 61 63 60 57 53 50 47 48 48 49 45 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 29 17 17 20 25 11 24 13 20 29 33 36 27 200 MB DIV -4 13 10 3 -15 -27 -42 -43 -39 -11 -14 -23 -36 LAND (KM) 1741 1799 1858 1925 1992 2140 2183 2049 1905 1755 1603 1396 1187 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.0 17.4 16.8 16.3 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 128.8 129.5 130.2 130.9 131.6 133.0 134.2 135.6 137.1 138.6 140.1 142.2 144.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 9 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -22. -27. -30. -32. -34. -35. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -27. -34. -38. -42. -45. -47. -48. -47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -12. -17. -27. -35. -39. -43. -46. -48. -49. -47. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/11/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/11/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY