* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 28 35 46 55 63 68 73 77 78 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 28 35 46 55 63 68 73 77 78 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 20 23 27 31 38 45 54 62 69 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 4 5 8 8 4 4 5 3 12 2 11 SHEAR DIR 72 68 131 81 74 130 22 99 28 358 345 299 323 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 141 140 141 143 143 143 147 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 137 137 137 136 136 137 138 138 141 141 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 59 59 57 55 51 51 50 53 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 8 9 6 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 78 57 43 35 35 26 24 10 19 -5 1 -5 -1 200 MB DIV 10 12 32 46 37 59 20 0 -6 -11 -26 -14 7 LAND (KM) 881 877 884 892 905 950 847 790 694 422 138 100 44 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.5 15.7 16.7 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.1 48.9 49.7 50.5 51.3 53.1 55.0 56.9 59.2 61.7 64.5 67.0 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 45 48 46 51 56 46 59 64 59 67 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 26. 35. 44. 49. 54. 58. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 26. 35. 43. 48. 53. 57. 58. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY