* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 37 46 56 64 70 75 81 83 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 37 46 56 64 70 75 81 83 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 34 41 49 58 67 70 SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 17 16 14 10 6 10 5 7 9 18 19 SHEAR DIR 77 83 72 94 97 83 71 40 66 167 168 167 176 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 141 141 140 136 131 129 130 132 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 141 142 142 140 135 129 127 128 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 75 72 69 70 68 65 64 65 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 11 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 47 53 77 81 82 91 102 100 100 104 94 81 73 200 MB DIV 56 79 82 101 100 118 126 105 69 94 99 86 19 LAND (KM) 1302 1416 1532 1649 1729 1669 1671 1553 1426 1335 1297 1351 1401 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.5 15.6 17.0 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 28.8 30.0 31.1 32.3 33.4 35.7 37.9 40.1 42.5 45.1 47.5 49.4 50.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 24 22 22 17 16 14 9 14 26 37 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 18. 29. 38. 47. 53. 59. 61. 59. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 12. 21. 31. 39. 45. 50. 56. 58. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY