* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 20 19 16 16 21 23 25 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 20 19 16 16 21 23 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 20 19 18 18 17 16 SHEAR (KTS) 5 2 5 6 6 5 3 8 9 9 12 25 35 SHEAR DIR 136 170 227 256 273 290 263 193 237 220 253 268 275 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 113 114 114 114 115 116 118 119 123 127 129 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 45 49 47 47 48 48 46 47 40 41 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -8 -13 -15 -26 -37 -27 -34 -35 -50 -53 -50 -53 200 MB DIV 17 2 -2 -18 -29 -36 -15 -14 -10 -30 -16 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1392 1316 1241 1146 1052 858 694 543 414 422 590 814 951 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.8 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 142.6 143.3 144.0 144.9 145.8 147.8 149.6 151.7 154.0 156.5 159.3 162.1 164.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -6. -3. -3. -1. -1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -9. -4. -2. 0. 0. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY