* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 33 40 47 50 54 59 60 61 60 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 33 40 47 50 54 59 60 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 33 34 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 18 18 17 14 12 15 13 17 19 18 17 21 19 SHEAR DIR 123 128 132 125 121 104 96 92 87 97 87 91 98 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 153 153 152 151 147 144 138 132 127 124 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 60 60 61 64 62 65 64 62 56 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 8 8 9 11 11 12 13 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -5 7 12 17 14 25 46 66 85 94 102 83 74 200 MB DIV 22 2 14 51 70 78 65 85 92 112 56 43 40 LAND (KM) 995 1025 1061 1112 1169 1295 1427 1566 1722 1885 2026 2128 2205 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.8 114.6 115.5 116.4 118.3 120.3 122.4 124.6 126.7 128.5 130.0 131.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 9 8 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 24. 28. 32. 35. 34. 35. 34. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 22. 25. 29. 34. 35. 36. 35. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY