* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 50 58 64 68 69 71 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 50 58 64 68 69 68 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 43 50 56 63 58 74 SHEAR (KTS) 7 4 8 10 11 5 11 3 10 7 14 12 12 SHEAR DIR 82 107 76 76 105 94 80 71 55 32 5 336 353 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 141 141 141 141 142 142 143 144 145 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 139 139 138 137 137 136 136 137 138 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 57 57 60 60 59 60 54 52 53 51 53 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 59 44 34 30 23 19 4 3 1 0 -18 -16 -12 200 MB DIV 15 42 55 41 51 64 26 -1 -9 -4 -15 -22 -3 LAND (KM) 919 913 911 919 943 871 783 731 605 365 137 0 10 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.0 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.4 49.3 50.2 51.2 52.2 54.2 56.1 58.0 60.1 62.3 64.4 66.5 68.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 51 50 58 61 68 50 64 59 54 0 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 26. 34. 39. 44. 44. 47. 47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 25. 33. 39. 43. 44. 46. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY