* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 39 48 57 64 68 73 76 77 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 39 48 57 64 68 73 76 77 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 42 49 56 62 69 71 SHEAR (KTS) 23 14 10 3 6 7 9 11 8 9 2 15 18 SHEAR DIR 81 64 71 92 97 139 33 350 13 232 143 163 162 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 140 140 136 131 127 123 126 128 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 138 140 140 139 134 129 124 120 122 122 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 71 72 70 66 66 57 64 62 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 84 90 94 94 101 105 108 100 109 80 82 58 200 MB DIV 83 94 113 92 92 97 70 51 61 93 64 26 16 LAND (KM) 1335 1442 1551 1659 1770 1776 1791 1655 1547 1472 1503 1586 1627 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.4 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.7 19.4 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 29.2 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.6 35.7 37.9 40.3 43.0 45.5 47.6 49.2 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 19 18 18 15 14 14 16 20 24 26 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 30. 39. 45. 51. 55. 55. 53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 14. 23. 32. 39. 43. 48. 51. 52. 51. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 45% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY