* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 17 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 1 5 7 10 8 9 4 13 12 13 15 14 16 SHEAR DIR 216 267 267 274 274 271 227 192 211 228 254 257 256 SST (C) 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 109 107 106 105 105 107 110 112 115 117 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 45 47 45 43 45 41 42 39 41 40 35 32 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -4 -8 -19 -22 -22 -17 -11 -13 -20 -14 -15 -4 200 MB DIV 0 -4 -5 -15 -21 -28 -26 -12 4 -19 -22 -26 -38 LAND (KM) 1324 1233 1143 1069 996 885 787 666 528 380 246 156 238 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 143.2 143.9 144.6 145.2 145.8 146.7 147.6 148.8 150.2 151.8 153.6 155.4 157.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -10. -7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -15. -13. -10. -8. -4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY