* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/11/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 54 48 43 34 27 22 21 22 21 23 28 V (KT) LAND 65 59 54 48 43 34 27 22 21 22 21 23 28 V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 55 51 48 42 37 33 31 30 30 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 4 6 4 3 4 12 6 4 5 11 8 6 7 SHEAR DIR 151 178 209 198 183 188 229 182 129 131 154 216 265 SST (C) 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 94 94 95 97 98 102 105 106 109 111 113 115 114 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 51 54 50 47 50 44 48 45 45 39 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 14 2 -1 16 6 22 29 36 38 36 30 200 MB DIV 6 0 -23 -36 -42 -41 -45 -36 -11 -12 -14 -28 -19 LAND (KM) 1869 1944 2020 2099 2178 2069 1922 1767 1597 1409 1207 1014 825 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.0 17.4 16.8 16.2 15.7 15.3 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 130.7 131.5 132.2 133.0 133.7 135.2 136.7 138.3 140.1 142.1 144.3 146.3 148.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -28. -28. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -21. -30. -36. -40. -42. -42. -44. -42. -38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -11. -17. -22. -31. -38. -43. -44. -43. -44. -42. -37. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/11/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/11/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY