* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 55 62 66 67 65 62 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 55 62 66 67 65 62 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 42 49 57 64 68 67 64 62 SHEAR (KTS) 6 3 6 6 6 5 1 12 15 24 19 22 10 SHEAR DIR 126 120 109 118 170 2 116 330 332 331 317 313 292 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 137 140 141 142 142 141 142 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 133 133 133 133 133 132 132 130 129 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 60 63 59 57 59 56 55 53 56 54 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 32 23 20 12 2 10 -7 -2 -24 -23 -10 200 MB DIV 26 30 34 35 46 20 -7 1 5 -4 -16 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 1055 1075 1095 1131 1155 1075 1058 881 697 502 366 280 277 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.3 20.7 20.8 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.2 49.1 49.9 50.9 51.8 53.7 55.5 57.4 59.3 61.4 63.3 64.9 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 45 51 58 58 45 54 59 53 56 68 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 10. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 31. 38. 42. 43. 41. 38. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 30. 37. 41. 42. 40. 37. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY