* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 54 61 65 68 70 69 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 54 61 65 68 70 69 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 41 47 52 57 60 60 SHEAR (KTS) 16 13 10 9 9 5 8 12 8 11 13 21 20 SHEAR DIR 70 79 102 112 109 61 327 339 269 264 216 226 202 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 138 136 132 127 123 124 127 130 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 139 137 133 129 125 121 121 122 124 123 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 75 72 70 67 65 59 60 61 61 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 98 98 96 98 83 93 85 73 57 52 37 11 200 MB DIV 97 111 88 98 97 62 51 21 53 36 31 20 44 LAND (KM) 1411 1511 1613 1710 1808 1861 1817 1682 1585 1559 1613 1580 1504 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.4 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.7 19.3 21.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.0 31.1 32.1 33.1 34.1 36.1 38.3 40.9 43.7 46.4 48.8 50.8 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 11 11 11 12 14 15 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 17 15 16 11 10 12 15 22 23 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 28. 36. 42. 45. 47. 46. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 36. 40. 43. 45. 44. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY