* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 15 DIS 17 19 22 26 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 16 SHEAR (KTS) 4 7 9 7 9 2 11 14 13 19 17 20 21 SHEAR DIR 255 262 276 287 293 294 184 224 235 252 260 263 263 SST (C) 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 109 108 107 107 108 109 112 113 116 119 123 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 43 39 43 39 41 39 34 29 27 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -1 -11 -14 -22 -12 -20 -14 -22 -16 -22 -12 -11 200 MB DIV -12 -9 -8 -16 -31 -30 0 10 -12 -12 -19 -30 -22 LAND (KM) 1198 1111 1025 954 882 757 636 514 377 252 142 190 348 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 144.3 145.0 145.7 146.3 146.9 148.0 149.1 150.3 151.7 153.1 154.9 156.8 158.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -3. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -11. -8. -6. -3. 1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY