* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 41 37 29 22 19 17 18 20 22 25 V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 41 37 29 22 19 17 18 20 22 25 V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 47 44 41 36 33 30 28 27 26 25 25 SHEAR (KTS) 4 2 1 3 6 11 7 6 8 8 8 11 13 SHEAR DIR 128 119 105 140 149 178 204 179 161 205 219 239 252 SST (C) 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 96 97 97 99 101 103 104 106 109 111 112 112 113 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 51 53 50 48 50 49 46 47 42 41 35 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 12 15 3 3 3 6 11 20 18 26 28 31 17 200 MB DIV -5 -21 -32 -40 -36 -33 -32 -36 -14 -20 -15 -32 -16 LAND (KM) 1934 2018 2103 2181 2151 1979 1798 1645 1497 1305 1062 870 730 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.7 17.3 16.7 16.1 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 131.3 132.2 133.0 133.7 134.4 136.1 137.9 139.5 141.1 143.1 145.5 147.5 149.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 11 11 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -17. -25. -31. -34. -36. -36. -35. -33. -30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -14. -18. -26. -33. -36. -38. -37. -35. -33. -30. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -26.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY