* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 39 43 47 49 51 54 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 39 43 47 49 51 54 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 32 32 33 33 32 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 16 13 15 15 17 18 8 14 12 7 13 SHEAR DIR 121 119 123 107 105 95 97 87 46 84 93 105 88 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.5 25.8 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 153 152 149 147 142 135 128 120 114 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.3 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 57 60 61 59 60 63 60 59 56 57 54 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 10 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 22 29 32 32 36 44 56 76 97 104 93 72 69 200 MB DIV 19 55 65 73 70 53 74 68 65 56 56 37 8 LAND (KM) 1036 1066 1102 1138 1180 1283 1392 1506 1625 1745 1835 1895 1961 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.6 115.4 116.2 117.0 118.7 120.6 122.6 124.6 126.3 127.9 129.0 130.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 5. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 17. 22. 27. 29. 29. 30. 28. 28. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 29. 27. 28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY