* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 56 60 61 62 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 51 56 60 61 62 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 35 41 47 52 55 56 56 59 SHEAR (KTS) 6 6 6 6 6 3 7 16 19 20 18 12 9 SHEAR DIR 177 163 159 216 271 10 281 315 304 322 306 352 250 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 139 140 141 140 140 140 141 142 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 133 133 133 131 130 128 127 126 126 127 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 63 59 58 58 62 55 52 54 55 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR 37 39 32 27 27 13 17 0 -9 -16 14 26 33 200 MB DIV 32 31 32 37 41 6 -9 0 9 5 -21 -9 0 LAND (KM) 1092 1113 1143 1168 1129 1120 1032 899 752 629 525 444 387 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.0 18.6 19.8 20.7 21.2 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 49.9 50.8 51.8 52.7 54.4 56.0 57.5 59.2 60.8 62.2 63.6 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 50 56 61 44 47 49 45 42 45 43 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 31. 36. 37. 37. 37. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 31. 35. 36. 37. 36. 37. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY