* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 56 63 70 73 74 74 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 56 63 70 73 74 74 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 43 49 56 64 68 70 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 11 14 7 8 11 4 3 3 12 13 25 SHEAR DIR 78 82 92 88 77 17 331 329 210 310 225 204 235 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 133 132 127 124 121 124 127 129 131 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 133 130 129 124 120 118 119 121 121 120 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 74 70 68 64 63 62 60 61 60 63 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 108 105 96 94 86 73 84 71 54 35 46 28 3 200 MB DIV 115 102 107 91 88 49 19 38 40 34 31 31 -10 LAND (KM) 1484 1580 1678 1778 1880 1927 1802 1701 1630 1651 1673 1616 1571 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.5 19.0 20.8 22.7 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 30.9 31.9 32.9 33.9 34.9 37.1 39.4 42.0 44.7 47.2 49.3 50.9 52.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 14 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 13 14 11 8 9 11 15 19 21 20 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 30. 39. 46. 50. 51. 50. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 31. 38. 45. 48. 49. 49. 45. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY