* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 18 22 26 29 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 18 22 26 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 18 17 SHEAR (KTS) 8 9 5 4 1 5 11 10 13 16 15 19 22 SHEAR DIR 287 320 335 345 184 159 196 222 242 260 263 252 252 SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 110 108 108 108 109 111 113 116 118 121 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 41 42 38 38 35 34 31 32 30 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -22 -24 -30 -25 -28 -31 -34 -29 -26 -22 -19 -31 200 MB DIV -9 -3 -6 -25 -39 -19 -1 0 -18 -17 -13 -16 -2 LAND (KM) 1130 1048 966 896 827 720 591 466 338 231 217 331 466 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.6 146.3 146.9 147.5 148.5 149.8 151.1 152.7 154.5 156.4 158.4 160.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 1. 4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -3. 1. 4. 7. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY