* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 36 32 25 20 DIS DIS DIS 16 18 22 V (KT) LAND 50 45 41 36 32 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 40 38 34 32 30 28 27 26 25 25 SHEAR (KTS) 3 2 3 6 10 9 9 10 16 12 13 10 16 SHEAR DIR 195 46 116 128 147 167 169 155 158 177 200 216 209 SST (C) 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 101 102 103 105 106 110 112 114 116 116 117 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 53 53 50 51 52 47 47 43 42 39 37 36 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 7 6 8 23 11 21 16 16 11 6 -2 -7 200 MB DIV -26 -29 -28 -34 -41 -39 -35 -26 -14 -4 -25 -11 -16 LAND (KM) 2041 2120 2199 2126 2040 1894 1752 1572 1377 1182 992 812 653 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.2 16.6 16.0 15.5 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 132.3 133.1 133.8 134.7 135.5 137.0 138.5 140.4 142.5 144.6 146.6 148.6 150.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -24. -28. -32. -33. -34. -35. -32. -29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -14. -18. -25. -30. -35. -36. -35. -34. -32. -28. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -31.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY