* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/12/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 35 41 46 50 51 51 52 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 35 41 46 50 51 51 52 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 29 30 30 30 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 18 17 18 19 19 18 11 15 13 7 7 SHEAR DIR 112 116 109 104 93 74 70 55 57 74 100 81 110 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.6 25.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 153 152 150 147 142 134 126 118 112 106 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 60 60 63 63 62 63 63 60 57 58 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 10 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 22 30 42 43 62 78 95 99 94 78 72 200 MB DIV 42 58 77 79 72 57 93 55 84 30 43 9 0 LAND (KM) 1100 1143 1190 1237 1288 1408 1521 1637 1762 1862 1918 1975 2021 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.4 118.2 120.0 122.0 124.0 125.9 127.6 128.9 130.0 131.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 27. 26. 25. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 25. 26. 26. 27. 25. 26. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY