* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 50 54 59 61 64 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 50 54 59 61 64 67 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 39 44 49 53 57 62 67 SHEAR (KTS) 8 14 10 6 4 6 15 11 16 10 13 3 9 SHEAR DIR 178 206 219 246 265 252 289 293 314 322 324 245 284 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 141 142 142 143 141 141 144 149 152 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 137 138 136 134 131 130 133 137 140 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 56 52 55 57 54 53 50 53 55 57 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 10 10 10 9 9 7 8 7 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 39 35 30 25 4 7 -11 -7 -16 -9 -16 -25 200 MB DIV 32 36 38 22 0 -4 -4 -4 -7 -26 -7 -4 20 LAND (KM) 1143 1147 1088 1060 1052 908 717 553 395 344 265 219 252 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 19.8 20.6 21.2 21.4 21.6 21.5 21.7 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.8 52.0 53.1 54.2 55.3 57.2 59.3 61.4 63.8 66.0 68.2 70.1 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 53 58 62 55 49 54 51 47 51 65 68 64 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 18. 25. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 29. 34. 36. 39. 42. 43. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY