* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 52 61 67 69 70 69 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 52 61 67 69 70 69 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 44 51 57 61 64 63 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 6 2 6 3 7 5 8 14 13 24 21 SHEAR DIR 110 80 80 43 340 356 279 204 194 154 195 182 218 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 131 129 126 123 121 123 127 130 132 135 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 129 126 123 118 118 120 123 123 123 124 127 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 73 71 67 66 64 59 59 59 59 57 59 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 11 9 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 104 95 92 85 79 78 67 72 72 50 57 27 -10 200 MB DIV 89 91 77 76 31 13 8 44 63 41 34 20 11 LAND (KM) 1479 1587 1697 1815 1935 1937 1784 1644 1565 1579 1527 1428 1367 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.4 16.0 16.9 17.9 19.3 20.8 22.7 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.1 33.2 34.4 35.5 37.8 40.4 43.6 46.7 49.2 51.2 52.8 54.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 14 16 15 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 7 5 7 9 14 22 26 26 25 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 36. 42. 45. 47. 45. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 27. 36. 42. 44. 45. 44. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY