* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP942008 08/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 18 23 26 28 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 18 23 26 28 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 20 20 19 19 19 SHEAR (KTS) 13 11 8 5 7 6 12 12 10 13 23 26 27 SHEAR DIR 292 322 304 260 250 202 197 213 238 231 235 237 252 SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 110 109 109 109 112 113 116 119 124 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 42 43 41 43 40 38 37 32 29 28 28 27 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -20 -28 -24 -25 -31 -29 -40 -32 -36 -30 -34 -48 200 MB DIV -6 -11 -7 -20 -31 -18 -13 0 -5 3 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 1013 927 840 773 705 581 448 324 201 200 357 443 524 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 146.0 146.8 147.5 148.1 148.7 149.9 151.3 152.9 154.7 156.8 159.0 161.3 163.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -3. -2. 0. 2. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -2. 1. 3. 6. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP942008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY