* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 32 29 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 17 22 V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 32 29 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 36 34 31 28 26 24 22 21 21 21 SHEAR (KTS) 2 4 6 9 10 8 15 13 13 11 7 6 8 SHEAR DIR 358 74 108 148 145 136 137 157 163 161 175 164 214 SST (C) 23.7 23.8 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 99 99 102 103 104 105 108 111 113 116 117 118 119 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 51 49 44 46 39 36 32 34 29 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 9 23 17 7 16 0 3 -6 -3 -21 -23 200 MB DIV -23 -22 -32 -36 -34 -33 -31 0 -8 -17 -38 -17 -28 LAND (KM) 2127 2201 2132 2057 1983 1825 1677 1490 1285 1106 946 752 564 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.0 16.3 15.7 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 133.9 134.6 135.4 136.1 137.7 139.3 141.3 143.5 145.5 147.3 149.6 152.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -22. -27. -31. -32. -32. -32. -29. -24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -9. -13. -16. -24. -30. -35. -36. -33. -31. -28. -23. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY