* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/12/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 45 46 48 48 47 48 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 45 46 48 48 47 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 29 SHEAR (KTS) 20 16 16 17 17 17 18 15 15 12 7 7 2 SHEAR DIR 111 109 104 96 90 81 72 67 82 97 109 118 196 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.2 26.6 25.8 25.1 24.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 150 148 143 135 129 120 112 105 99 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 58 62 62 64 62 62 59 56 55 51 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 28 38 42 44 62 76 97 101 86 78 66 200 MB DIV 48 74 76 73 72 89 62 60 65 66 31 5 5 LAND (KM) 1106 1143 1185 1229 1277 1384 1478 1584 1697 1759 1818 1863 1904 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.1 116.8 117.6 118.4 120.2 122.1 124.0 125.7 127.2 128.5 129.6 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 15. 20. 23. 25. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 19. 24. 25. 27. 25. 23. 23. 22. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 20. 21. 23. 23. 22. 23. 22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY