* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 49 56 58 62 64 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 49 56 58 62 64 61 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 51 57 62 68 67 SHEAR (KTS) 16 11 5 3 6 2 11 10 14 12 9 6 6 SHEAR DIR 190 197 188 225 119 288 354 332 339 318 1 295 12 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 142 143 142 141 143 149 149 148 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 137 136 135 133 132 134 140 140 138 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 51 53 53 52 48 48 50 50 53 54 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 9 10 8 8 8 7 9 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 47 43 40 32 23 3 -6 -8 -12 3 2 5 5 200 MB DIV 34 37 32 21 28 -4 -11 -2 8 -7 -1 10 4 LAND (KM) 1121 1055 1007 994 929 741 540 335 211 129 16 -6 15 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.1 19.9 19.8 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.5 54.7 55.8 56.9 58.8 61.0 63.4 65.9 68.3 70.5 72.5 74.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 11 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 57 62 57 57 56 57 50 60 69 75 0 0 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 31. 35. 40. 42. 47. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 24. 31. 33. 37. 39. 44. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY