* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 48 51 53 51 49 48 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 44 48 51 53 51 49 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 39 40 40 39 39 38 SHEAR (KTS) 8 5 1 4 9 8 11 21 17 23 20 22 15 SHEAR DIR 64 97 325 12 346 295 246 223 229 211 209 231 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 125 121 118 114 114 118 122 122 123 127 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 122 116 113 108 108 110 113 111 111 111 112 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 63 58 51 58 52 52 52 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 10 11 11 12 13 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 86 79 74 71 61 47 27 54 41 24 -11 -31 -74 200 MB DIV 69 62 55 25 1 -22 24 10 39 19 27 6 21 LAND (KM) 1464 1563 1665 1776 1890 2089 2075 2044 2072 2162 2114 2048 2032 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.6 21.3 23.1 24.9 26.4 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.1 35.1 36.9 39.0 41.1 43.2 45.0 46.5 47.8 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 4 2 2 0 1 4 10 9 10 14 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 28. 27. 25. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 26. 24. 23. 20. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY