* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 33 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 17 20 24 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 34 31 29 26 24 23 21 21 21 21 22 SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 6 6 5 9 8 11 6 7 5 8 13 SHEAR DIR 347 84 150 143 152 144 156 150 139 150 180 188 226 SST (C) 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.7 25.0 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 99 99 100 103 103 104 107 110 114 116 116 117 117 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 50 47 46 40 37 32 30 28 27 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 20 12 8 19 22 19 12 11 -1 -4 -21 200 MB DIV -13 -23 -23 -10 -15 -34 -29 -6 0 -16 -17 -31 -22 LAND (KM) 2172 2143 2067 1992 1918 1769 1617 1419 1183 973 797 630 485 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.2 16.6 16.0 15.4 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 134.5 135.2 136.0 136.7 138.2 139.8 141.9 144.5 146.8 148.7 150.8 152.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 10 11 12 10 10 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -27. -27. -25. -25. -21. -17. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -11. -14. -20. -27. -31. -31. -26. -23. -20. -16. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY