* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 42 43 44 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 42 43 44 43 44 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 27 26 SHEAR (KTS) 15 18 20 20 22 18 19 17 13 13 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 98 94 91 92 83 73 50 81 92 118 90 124 142 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.6 26.9 26.2 25.3 24.7 24.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 148 148 145 140 132 125 115 108 101 95 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 60 60 58 58 58 58 58 55 51 53 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 20 35 37 45 67 80 97 96 83 70 68 69 200 MB DIV 63 66 68 65 57 80 63 55 46 31 10 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 1096 1130 1167 1216 1267 1367 1467 1571 1675 1734 1789 1853 1932 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.3 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.5 117.2 118.0 118.7 120.5 122.4 124.2 125.9 127.4 128.6 129.9 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 23. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 20. 22. 23. 20. 19. 19. 19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 19. 19. 19. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY