* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/12/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 38 42 50 53 53 49 48 46 46 47 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 38 42 50 53 53 49 48 46 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 37 35 33 31 29 26 SHEAR (KTS) 20 19 22 21 23 24 22 26 22 19 16 19 17 SHEAR DIR 50 55 64 68 74 101 99 100 102 113 110 130 131 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.0 26.4 25.7 24.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 158 156 154 149 145 139 133 126 119 109 101 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 10 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 76 74 70 73 71 70 68 65 60 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 28 24 4 -7 7 -5 -7 0 0 -10 -6 -6 200 MB DIV 14 28 33 11 8 10 1 22 9 -2 -5 1 -6 LAND (KM) 207 199 226 270 297 409 533 492 533 574 603 632 729 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.5 21.1 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 103.6 104.5 105.5 106.5 108.4 110.2 111.8 113.4 114.6 115.9 117.0 118.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 22. 24. 22. 21. 20. 19. 20. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 28. 28. 24. 23. 21. 21. 22. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/12/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY