* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 55 60 63 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 48 55 60 63 66 69 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 40 46 51 58 63 68 72 SHEAR (KTS) 13 8 5 2 4 9 5 14 8 18 5 14 10 SHEAR DIR 192 205 227 162 202 342 29 352 329 337 245 298 249 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 141 142 142 141 144 148 150 149 149 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 135 133 133 133 131 133 136 138 136 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 54 49 51 47 51 51 57 53 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 30 22 17 4 -2 -19 -12 -18 -14 -26 -16 -5 200 MB DIV 22 16 10 14 -10 0 -26 -3 -19 0 -11 -8 -17 LAND (KM) 1087 1044 1019 986 891 700 523 365 289 238 156 166 211 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.0 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 54.3 55.4 56.4 57.3 59.3 61.4 63.7 65.8 67.8 69.7 71.3 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 63 56 54 56 54 58 50 57 68 73 69 44 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 30. 35. 39. 43. 45. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. 44. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.7 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY