* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 51 58 61 62 61 59 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 43 51 58 61 62 61 59 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 37 42 46 49 50 50 50 SHEAR (KTS) 9 7 6 7 4 7 9 11 13 16 13 19 13 SHEAR DIR 64 68 21 26 356 323 224 223 191 211 223 255 253 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 130 127 124 120 118 120 122 123 127 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 127 123 119 115 113 114 114 112 114 115 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 70 73 70 67 62 57 57 53 51 51 44 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 10 11 10 11 14 11 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 75 64 56 56 59 39 37 32 32 -4 -32 -74 -80 200 MB DIV 56 58 49 26 15 1 27 38 25 11 6 5 12 LAND (KM) 1678 1755 1836 1926 2018 1964 1903 1894 1984 2030 1965 1934 1960 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 16.3 17.7 19.4 21.4 23.3 25.3 26.9 28.2 LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.7 34.5 35.4 36.3 38.3 40.8 43.2 45.2 46.9 48.2 49.3 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 11 5 6 4 3 8 11 11 15 19 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 26. 33. 36. 37. 36. 35. 32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 26. 33. 36. 37. 36. 34. 30. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY