* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * HERNAN EP092008 08/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 24 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18 22 V (KT) LAND 35 31 28 24 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 27 25 22 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 5 5 5 7 11 6 7 6 6 12 20 SHEAR DIR 52 101 119 139 156 131 146 164 147 176 188 211 225 SST (C) 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.7 24.9 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 98 101 101 102 104 105 110 112 114 115 116 116 115 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 47 46 43 41 36 30 30 27 28 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR 11 24 18 13 9 18 17 17 9 6 -14 -19 -37 200 MB DIV -22 -22 -13 -19 -26 -29 -2 -1 -8 -28 -4 -20 -25 LAND (KM) 2147 2072 1997 1928 1859 1713 1538 1333 1124 912 715 559 428 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.2 17.9 17.7 17.4 16.9 16.1 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 134.4 135.2 135.9 136.6 137.3 138.8 140.7 142.9 145.1 147.4 149.6 151.6 153.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -19. -23. -25. -24. -23. -22. -19. -15. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -7. -11. -13. -20. -25. -28. -28. -23. -21. -17. -13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP092008 HERNAN 08/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092008 HERNAN 08/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY