* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP952008 08/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 41 44 47 48 51 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 41 44 47 48 51 51 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 31 31 30 SHEAR (KTS) 20 22 20 21 17 14 13 10 13 8 11 10 11 SHEAR DIR 96 97 90 82 84 49 65 92 81 95 91 105 126 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.7 25.0 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 153 152 147 141 133 125 118 111 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -53.8 -53.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 62 66 64 64 66 70 65 62 62 59 58 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 15 26 26 32 37 53 68 78 78 71 60 57 45 200 MB DIV 75 79 77 78 105 74 72 67 51 22 15 -1 -10 LAND (KM) 1194 1238 1283 1334 1388 1485 1536 1590 1633 1653 1668 1695 1761 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.9 117.5 118.2 118.9 120.5 122.1 123.4 124.6 125.5 126.4 127.4 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 22. 26. 27. 27. 25. 25. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 19. 22. 23. 26. 26. 26. 24. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP952008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY