* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/13/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 46 50 51 51 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 46 50 51 51 50 49 46 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 36 37 38 37 36 34 31 28 SHEAR (KTS) 18 19 21 19 23 20 25 13 13 8 8 10 11 SHEAR DIR 47 60 63 72 81 99 109 118 109 150 155 209 207 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.6 25.7 24.5 23.5 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 159 158 157 151 145 138 129 119 107 96 89 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 11 11 8 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 77 73 72 70 73 68 68 64 63 60 56 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 6 -4 2 -5 -3 -15 -6 -16 -11 -6 0 200 MB DIV 17 20 10 13 13 8 24 2 12 -1 -4 -11 -28 LAND (KM) 155 161 191 218 261 387 415 424 485 501 533 605 643 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.2 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.2 22.9 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.9 104.8 105.9 106.9 108.8 110.6 112.4 114.0 115.4 116.7 118.0 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 17. 22. 26. 27. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 24. 22. 19. 16. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. 21. 18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/13/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED