* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL922008 08/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 41 50 59 67 72 78 80 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 41 50 59 50 37 38 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 45 34 36 37 32 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 8 6 2 7 6 7 3 10 2 17 9 SHEAR DIR 179 153 158 148 174 118 66 115 22 144 192 158 154 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 142 142 142 144 147 148 148 148 151 151 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 135 135 135 136 139 139 138 137 140 139 141 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 50 52 45 47 48 47 50 50 56 50 54 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 14 8 8 -4 2 0 5 -15 -1 -17 -20 200 MB DIV -7 12 7 8 0 -29 -4 -15 4 -11 2 -1 8 LAND (KM) 769 749 696 587 478 242 24 62 -21 -77 22 -30 -43 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.5 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.5 20.2 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.2 59.2 60.2 61.2 63.4 65.6 67.7 69.6 71.5 73.3 74.9 76.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 53 61 64 57 62 1 73 9999 9999 82 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 26. 35. 42. 47. 53. 55. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 25. 34. 42. 47. 53. 55. 56. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008 INVEST 08/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008 INVEST 08/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY