* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL932008 08/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 33 39 42 43 42 38 36 35 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 33 39 42 43 42 38 36 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 32 32 31 29 27 26 SHEAR (KTS) 11 16 14 14 13 16 17 24 33 35 34 29 26 SHEAR DIR 317 339 328 307 290 240 234 213 224 219 237 240 264 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 115 116 116 120 122 123 127 135 134 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 110 110 110 114 114 113 116 119 116 107 106 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 62 62 53 57 55 56 58 57 59 56 51 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 11 13 12 10 10 8 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 81 70 61 56 39 35 34 26 9 -40 -90 -98 -107 200 MB DIV 18 -2 -8 -5 9 31 27 24 3 10 27 14 13 LAND (KM) 1879 2011 2119 2066 2023 1961 1968 2048 1975 1979 1913 1738 1694 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.6 21.1 23.2 25.3 27.6 29.7 31.4 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.2 37.4 38.7 39.9 42.4 44.9 46.7 48.1 49.2 49.6 48.9 47.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 1 1 7 11 11 15 22 20 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 13. 16. 18. 18. 16. 14. 12. 9. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 8. 14. 17. 18. 17. 13. 11. 10. 7. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932008 INVEST 08/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932008 INVEST 08/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY