* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP962008 08/13/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 47 46 43 40 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 47 46 43 40 37 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 38 38 37 35 33 30 27 24 SHEAR (KTS) 21 23 26 18 20 23 22 18 17 14 10 11 11 SHEAR DIR 56 72 83 89 93 103 111 115 135 141 158 161 179 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.1 24.0 23.3 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 150 148 145 138 132 125 113 102 95 90 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 75 73 76 75 72 71 68 66 61 57 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -1 1 11 5 8 -2 7 0 0 5 5 10 200 MB DIV 22 21 20 27 9 40 1 18 -3 -5 -7 -15 -19 LAND (KM) 310 331 346 389 442 512 486 523 596 633 737 852 970 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.2 107.0 107.9 108.7 110.3 111.9 113.5 115.1 116.7 118.5 120.4 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 16. 14. 11. 7. 4. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 17. 16. 13. 10. 7. 4. 1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008 INVEST 08/13/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008 INVEST 08/13/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED